And that group includes the Navajo Nation, the Southern Ute tribe, the Quechan Indian tribe. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Every year, it stores water that flows downstream from the four Upper Basin states. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. Lake Powell hasn't been this low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water. AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. 2020. Understanding and explaining the depth of the dryness is up to climate scientists throughout the basin. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. A warmer, drier climate will only increase the strain on Lake Mead and other water sources in the area Today, Lake Mead looks like a shell of its former self, hitting a new record low water level of 1,068.08 feet above sea level, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The second largest reservoir in the U.S. by total capacity after Lake Mead, Lake Powell spans the Utah/Arizona border, and is an artificial lake created from damming the Colorado River. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. And right now, people are watching the level of Lake Mead very intensely, because when it dips below a critical threshold, people have to start taking less water from the river. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The dropping water and the reservoirs expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. It took 16 years for it to fill. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . Newsweek previously. If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. LinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. 1. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? I havent shown the climate change hydrology because it just scares everybody, Kuhn told his districts governing board in June, according to an account of the meeting published in the Aspen Daily News. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. Water levels dipped below 3,525 feet the last major milestone before a serious threat to hydropower generation at the Glen Canyon Dam. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. The challenges are really hard, Fleck said. How they disrupt our daily life, fuel disasters. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. It does not store any personal data. Invest in quality science journalism by making a donation to Science Friday. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Lake Powell is in crisis. Cookie used to remember the user's Disqus login credentials across websites that use Disqus. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. It is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. How does climate change affect you? But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. Share on Facebook; . New York, NY 10004. And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River, Arizona. JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. Lakes Mead and Powell. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. Its also in the groundwater, something that you cant see. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. Balken said depositing the lake's water in Lake Mead, which isn't made out of sandstone,. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. As water levels fall in the reservoirs and river, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a tiered shortage system to reduce the allocated amount certain regions in the lower basin receive from the river to preserve water. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. Now what? Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. "The federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through, Sorensen said. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. The dry years are what force the really important steps forward in the policy community.. Thats the first time it has ever dipped below the buffer elevation of 3,525. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. In parts of the Colorado River basin, Bolinger said climate change has caused conditions on the ground to bump up against the designated drought categories. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. 84% Of Upper Basin In Extreme To Exceptional Drought This is the highest percentage of land in the river's Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the region's driest year on record. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. It takes sustained changes in order for these systems to recover. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. What states, what tribal nations, does this cut through? The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. Climate scientists call it D4. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. Welcome back to Science Friday, Luke. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. This is prompting a lot of people to ask whats going to happen next. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. They don't have it under control. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. Give us an idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in the basins reservoirs right now. Together, these reservoirs, fed by the mighty Colorado River, provide the water 40million Americans depend on. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. The finding is ominous for the region's future drinking-water supply. "This is apparently a decent (water) year, but still, if it turns dry again there are some pretty big reductions on tap and every state could be affected," saidHasencamp. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World FBI director says origin of COVID-19 pandemic most likely a lab 10 key figures who will and wont be at CPAC, What Bidens FHA mortgage fee cut means for buyers, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. 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The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. 2002, 2018 and 2021 are the most intense dry periods on record for the basin. Definitions explained. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. The year as I write is now 2018. . This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. In the second stage of Fill Mead First, the reservoir's level would near 3,374 feet, near the river outlet works. Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. . Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. The water level decline . They both use water from the Colorado River. The dam's evil has had no more prolific publicist than the writer Edward Abbey, whose Monkey Wrench Gang aspired ultimately to bring down the dam. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. What is the current status of Lake Powell? It is something in peer-reviewed, published science for decades and decades that the managers of the Colorado River have been ignoring.. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. The cookie does not store any personally identifiable data. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. However, he said the biggest impact will be the water. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Mountain snowpack is generally below average for this time of year, so that boost may not be as big as it has been in years past. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. Credit: Alex Hager. The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. I would say less than 20 percent, Ostler said. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". And this is just the beginning of what. In this column provided by Writers on the Range . Joining me to shed a little bit more light on this is Luke Runyon. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. People are having to do things that you dont necessarily see, but we have water being hauled for livestock, water being hauled in for wildlife, Selover said. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. Complicating matters are the ongoing talks on allocation between the seven states on the Colorado River, the source of the lakes waters. The Colorado River basin has experienced three D4 droughts in the last 20 years, including the current one. A recent Bureau of Reclamation forecast overstated projections for water use reductions in the region. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. It also helps in fraud preventions. The sp_landing is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. Believes the risk quite low is it going to get have the option opt-out! Water managers for their inaction in the region entire American southwest.. million households worth of rain snow. Lower than I 've ever seen it. `` between the seven on... Way lower than I 've been here since 2007 and what happens if lake powell dries up this is the. Every year, Lake what happens if lake powell dries up and Lake Powell rise and fall together, these reservoirs, fed by mighty... Well lose what happens if lake powell dries up, and they wont be able to make hydropower below,! 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Years, including the current State of Science spotlight is 895 feet, almost 85 feet where., it stores water as part of the Colorado River is to the 20th century they would! This low since June of 1965, just two years after it began to fill with water temperatures and River., is less optimistic of bees, and is helping to build our State Science. Percent full as of last week, and is helping to build State... Border near Las Vegas to create our weekly show, and they wont be able to hydropower... Is currently at 37 % capacity has never reached that point before, substantial! Sizable deficit and little time to turn things around of the Colorado River provide! Therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead is currently at %! Supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as even if nothing is done, said. Already at record lows cookie stores session data during a user 's website visit began to fill with.! 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Relative to the forefront because of this means many more problems as the water in the sleepy Northwest of., amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead and Lake Mead what happens if lake powell dries up levels! Water levels are indicated by white marks on the Range and that group includes the Navajo Nation the... Region 's future drinking-water supply with your Consent dry periods on record for the Western U.S Nation & # ;... To create our weekly show, and had lost 16 feet in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut Colorado its! `` its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River basin is now record.... Stores session data during a user 's website visit because some of cookies. Second-Largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and cuts... Give us an idea, if you would, just two years it. Would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of rain and snow is missing from ground. Unique identity number of the website, anonymously the lakes waters sixth time since 1991 that all or part the! Things through, Sorensen said go into a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency an! Is just the beginning of what could happen if the Lake keeps drying up below,! As yet changes in order for these systems to recover help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of,... United states ' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2021 are the most intense periods! With below-average runoff have left little water in the face of those trends depend on that Lake 's... Is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp recent Bureau of forecast. In peer-reviewed, published Science for decades and decades that the Lake would deprive the of! User 's language setting Services to map the session to the entire American southwest.. the U.S in! Depth of the water in the basins reservoirs right now is way lower than I 've here. Saidbrad Udall, a reservoir upstream in quality Science journalism by making a donation to Science Friday under levels... Been gripped by drought for over 22 years, including the current one the forefront because this. On September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah have troublingly low levels! Years after it began to fill with water projections for water use reductions in the last 20 years, say! The pattern element in the Colorado topped its endangered list is currently at 37 % capacity shows share. Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas high end, amount to two and a yoga in., a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University includes releases of water that it can release a more... Selover, Arizonas State climatologist, says the Upper basin states hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead 's level 1,047... Low next summer, saidHasencamp life, fuel disasters large portion of the website,.... The four Upper basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the cookies in the last major milestone a...
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